The 1948 Ronald Reagan campaign audio President Obama could use today?

October 14, 2012


Obama leads among early voters: Poll


WASHINGTON – U.S. President Barack Obama  and Republican challenger Mitt Romney are neck and neck in  opinion polls, but there is one area in which the incumbent  appears to have a big advantage: those who have already cast  their ballots.

Obama leads Romney by 59 percent to 31 percent among early  voters, according to Reuters/Ipsos polling data compiled in  recent weeks.

The sample size of early voters is relatively small, but the  Democrat’s margin is still well above the poll’s credibility  interval – a measurement of polls’ accuracy – of 10 percentage  points.

With the Nov. 6 election just more than three weeks away, 7  percent of those surveyed said they had already voted either in  person or by mail.

The online poll is another sign that early voting is likely  to play a bigger role this year than in 2008, when roughly one  in three voters cast a ballot before Election Day. Voting is  already under way in some form in at least 40 states.

Both the Obama and Romney teams are urging supporters to  vote as soon as possible so the campaigns can focus their  door-knocking and phone-calling operations on those who are  still undecided or need more prodding to get to the polls.

Early voting was a big part of Obama’s victory over  Republican John McCain in 2008, and his campaign aims to repeat  its success this year.

The Reuters/Ipsos poll indicates the campaign’s efforts  appear to be paying off, although its advantage could erode as  Election Day approaches.

The Obama campaign says it is leading among early voters in  Iowa and Ohio, and trailing by a smaller margin than 2008 in  several other swing states. It expects its early voting efforts  will help the campaign weather a blitz of negative ads expected  to saturate the airwaves in battleground states in the final  weeks before Nov. 6.

“We’ve made early investments in battleground states – where  we’ve been registering folks and keeping an open conversation  going with undecided voters for months – to build a historic  grass-roots organization that will pay off when the votes are  counted,” spokesman Adam Fetcher said.


The Romney campaign says it is leading or even with Obama  among early voters in several closely fought battleground  states, including Florida, North Carolina, Colorado, Nevada and  New Hampshire. The campaign says it has seen a spike in  volunteering and voter enthusiasm among Republicans since  Romney’s strong debate performance against Obama on Oct. 3.

“Not only are we keeping pace with the vaunted Obama  machine, but we believe our ground game will put us over the   finish line on Election Day,” said Rich Beeson, the Romney  campaign’s political director.

George Mason University professor Michael McDonald, an  expert on early voting, said it was difficult to tell how the  results so far could affect the outcome of the race.

In North Carolina and Maine, Democrats seem to be voting in  higher numbers than 2008, while Republicans seem to be voting in  slightly lower numbers than four years ago, he said.

In Ohio, where voters do not register by party, early voting  appears to be higher than normal in both Republican and  Democratic areas, McDonald said.

In Iowa, about twice as many registered Democrats as  Republicans have voted by now – a potential warning sign for the  Romney campaign, he said.

“Romney needs a change here. The good news for Romney is day  to day, incrementally, the numbers shift in his direction, so he  may be able to catch up,” McDonald said.

The accuracy of Reuters/Ipsos online polls is measured using  a credibility interval. For the 6,704 people who were asked  whether they had voted yet, the credibility interval was 1.3  points. For the 361 people who replied that they had already  cast their ballots, the credibility interval was 10 points.


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Who are Hispanics/Latinos by race

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Video: Ronald Reagan Campaigns for Harry S. Truman in  1948

Harry S. Truman (Democratic) would later become the 33rd President of the United States 1945–1953


Great Depression in the United States lasted from October 1929 until 1941, the beginning of World War II.

The Great Recession and the Global Financial Crisis began in December 2007.

United States presidential election, 1936

Franklin D. Roosevelt (Democrat) 27,752,648   Electoral vote 523

Alf Landon (Republican) 16,681,862   Electoral vote 8



The  presidential election of 1948 is said to be the greatest election upset. It was predicted that Republican Thomas E. Dewey would defeat President Harry S. Truman.

Harry S. Truman (Democrat) 24,179,347   Electoral vote 303

Thomas E. Dewey (Republican) 21,991,292   Electoral vote 189

Strom Thurmond (States’ Rights Democratic Party -Dixiecrat) 1,175,930   Electoral vote 39


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