Scotland UK: The final polls: Yes 43-47% No 48-50%, Don’t know 4-9%

September 17, 2014

Government/Politics, International

The final polls: Yes 43-47% No 48-50%, Don’t know 4-9%
The final polls before voting opens on Thursday morning suggests the No camp are still in the lead.

Union Jack

Herald Scotland

A Panelbase poll reported 45% for Yes, 50% for No, and 5% either undecided or wouldn’t say.

When the third category are excluded, it produces a headline figure of Yes 48% v No 52%.

That’s almost completely in line with the three polls which were published on Tuesday, and reflects the average split in the four surveys which came out at the weekend.

Separately, it asked undecided voters to imagine that they were standing in the polling booth, and slightly more said they would vote No than Yes.

Adding them to the original decided totals produces a result of Yes 47%, No 53%, suggesting evidence of the “Shy No” phenomenon where voters are less supportive of independence away from pollsters or canvassers.

Panelbase, which was not working for any media outlet, interviewed 1004 adults between Monday and today.

Meanwhile, a survey conducted by Ipsos-MORI poll for STV reported 47% for Yes and 49% for No, with 4% undecided.

A YouGov poll for the Times and the Sun, which surveyed more than 3000 people, the biggest poll to date, produced a headline figure of Yes 48% and No 52% – after it excluded the 6% of voters who were undecided.

Survation also added another poll into the mix, carried out up by phone up until 9pm tonight, finding Yes 43% No 48% and Don’t Know 9%.
Scottish independence: Voters answer referendum question

BBC News

With 4,285,323 people – 97% of the electorate – registered to vote, a historically high turnout is expected.

Votes will be cast at 2,608 polling places across the country between 07:00 and 22:00 on Thursday. The result is expected early on Friday morning.

Votes will be counted in each of Scotland’s 32 local authority areas.

These will include votes cast from the 789,024 postal vote applications, which was the largest volume of registration for postal votes ever in Scotland.
Video: Scotland’s economy by the numbers


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